Donald Trump's second term: A predictable shift in Middle East policy
14 Nov 2024 09:49
By Abraham Shmulevich
Editor's note: Abraham Shmulevich, Israeli political scientist, president of the Eastern Partnership Institute. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.
Donald Trump frequently faces criticism for his unpredictable approach; however, should he return for a second term , his foreign policy could take on a more stable trajectory, given that many of its foundational principles were established in his first term. This potential shift suggests continuity in his approach, with a focus on fulfilling his original campaign promises, particularly in supporting Israel and exerting strong influence across the Middle East . Trump has consistently prioritized strengthening the U.S. position in this region, viewing it as a strategic and economic advantage for America. His stance is not solely geopolitical but also reflects his deeply rooted belief in reinforcing alliances that he perceives as essential to U.S. interests.
In the Middle East, Trump's alignment with Israel is expected to remain steadfast. His commitment to supporting Israel stems from both personal convictions and long-standing financial contributions to various Israeli causes. Well before he entered the political arena, Trump was one of the major donors championing Israeli interests, convinced that a strong, resilient Israel benefits American foreign policy goals. His close family connections further cement his stance. His daughter Ivanka’s conversion to Judaism and her marriage to Jared Kushner, who played a pivotal role in shaping Trump's Middle Eastern policy, underscore the Trump family’s commitment to Israel. Kushner’s influence on Trump’s policy is evident in landmark moves such as relocating the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory, and championing the Abraham Accords, which facilitated diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab states.
Trump's approach to these relations would likely see further expansion if he returns to office. Building on the Abraham Accords, Trump might advocate for additional Arab countries to formalize ties with Israel. This could enable Israel to forge new regional alliances, extending beyond traditional tensions with the Arab world. By fostering a coalition of like-minded states, Trump aims to establish a powerful counterbalance to Iran’s influence in the region, strengthening what he views as an alliance of stability against perceived threats. His focus on expanding this alliance indicates his long-term strategy: a vision of Israel and its Arab neighbors coalescing into a bloc that counters Iran’s geopolitical and ideological ambitions.
On the issue of Gaza, Trump’s approach is likely to lean towards robust support for Israel in its efforts to dismantle the Hamas threat. Trump has consistently viewed Hamas as a destabilizing force not only for Israel but for U.S. interests in the region. Although he is expected to back Israeli measures to neutralize this threat, he may also adopt a balanced stance when it comes to post-conflict resolutions, emphasizing American and allied security interests. In this light, Trump’s past peace initiatives—many developed by Kushner—could see renewed application. Though Kushner has taken a step back from active political life, the frameworks he built, particularly those geared toward long-term stability and peace-building in the region, could be reactivated under Trump’s leadership.
A notable dimension that could shape Trump’s Middle East policy is his growing connections with the Boulos family, into which his daughter Tiffany has married. Tiffany’s father-in-law, a Lebanese-American with deep ties to the Arab community in the United States, could provide a unique channel for dialogue and diplomacy. This new connection could inspire Trump to explore broader avenues for peace, particularly between Israel and Lebanon. By engaging with Lebanese representatives through family ties, Trump might attempt to tackle long-standing challenges, including Hezbollah’s disarmament—an issue that has posed a significant roadblock to peace and security in Lebanon. The Boulos family’s influence within the Lebanese diaspora might enable Trump to engage in diplomacy that reflects both his commitment to Israel and a willingness to involve Lebanon in meaningful peace processes.
News about - Donald Trump's second term: A predictable shift in Middle East policy
Smoke rises following Israeli strikes, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip May 6, 2024. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled
On the Iran front, Trump is likely to adopt a hardline stance characterized by intensified economic pressure. Throughout his political career, he has advocated for reducing Iran’s oil revenue as a strategy to economically weaken the regime. His ultimate goal is to curb Iran’s funding for extremist groups that pose threats to regional and international stability. Under his administration, an escalation in sanctions on Iran would be anticipated, with a possibility of covertly or overtly supporting Iranian opposition groups as a means of internal destabilization. Trump's confrontational approach has only been fueled by recent allegations of an Iranian plot to assassinate him, which could further justify his calls for tightening the screws on Iran through multifaceted economic and diplomatic pressures.
U.S.- Türkiye relations under a renewed Trump administration may face challenges due to recent statements by Turkish President Erdoğan, which have conveyed a more critical stance toward Israel. Although Trump and Erdoğan previously managed to maintain a pragmatic relationship, this anti-Israel rhetoric may test the resilience of their rapport. Should Erdoğan soften his tone, however, Trump may be open to new cooperative opportunities, particularly in areas of shared strategic interest such as regional counterterrorism and trade. Trump values transactional relationships, and he may be willing to navigate through current tensions if it aligns with broader U.S. objectives.
With Saudi Arabia, Trump is expected to revive efforts to broker formal diplomatic ties between Jerusalem and Riyadh, a process that was largely stalled following the transition to the Biden administration. Trump’s goal would be to encourage Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel officially, with minimal concessions from Israel itself.
Recognizing the strategic importance of Saudi Arabia in the Arab world, Trump likely views a Saudi-Israeli alliance as a critical component of his vision for a stable Middle East. Such a partnership could counterbalance Iranian influence and bolster a coalition of countries allied with U.S. interests. Although significant compromises by Israel are unlikely, Trump might explore minor incentives to accelerate the process. Ultimately, he perceives a strengthened Israeli-Arab alliance as a linchpin for maintaining security and stability across the region, viewing it as a hallmark of his foreign policy legacy.
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